Russia’s government has moved to curb the uncontrolled outflow of physical cash and bullion, banning the export of unverified ruble notes and capping private gold shipments at 100 grams — a measure officials say will reclaim roughly 1 trillion rubles in lost revenue and cut the shadow economy by 1.5% of GDP.
- Price: Spot gold (approx. $2,000/oz; live markets apply)
- Carat Weight: Not applicable — 24k (999 fineness); export cap 100 g/person
- Origin: Announced in Moscow at a Kremlin policy meeting
- Date: Dec. 8, 2025
Context — What the Policy Signals for 2025
Presented by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak and backed by the Finance Ministry, the package targets cash and bullion flows that have become conduits for capital flight and money laundering. Officials singled out gold bars as increasingly substituting for hard currency in illicit transactions — a trend that accelerated after wartime currency controls created export loopholes. The measure sits alongside other 2025 priorities: stricter VAT enforcement, renewed anti-money-laundering scrutiny and a push for stronger provenance systems across metals markets.
The tactile reality matters: small cast bars and coins — objects with a warm, metallic vitreous luster and a substantial heft in the palm — will now carry a different commercial calculus. Where previously a traveller or intermediary could move kilos, the 100‑gram cap formalises scarcity at the retail end and raises the administrative cost of cross-border physical transfers.
Impact — Why This Matters to US Retailers and Investors
For US jewellery retailers and bullion dealers, the immediate consequence is twofold: a potential tightening of physical supply channels that serve secondary markets, and a higher premium on small-format retail bars and coins. Expect spreads on sub‑100g bars to widen if sourcing frictions from Russia persist, and for wholesale sellers to re-price inventories to reflect elevated compliance and shipping risk.
Investors should view this as a supply‑side shock of limited scope but clear signaling value. The move is not a broad physical export embargo on all gold, but it increases friction in a market already sensitive to political decisions and central-bank behaviour; remember that Russia’s central bank has been an active seller of physical reserves in recent months. Price volatility may appear in short windows as traders reassign inventory and premiums adjust.
Operationally, US businesses will face practical questions: intensified due diligence on chain‑of‑custody, tighter supplier warranties, and changes to inventory composition. Recycled and certified gold — with auditable provenance and documented recycling chains — will gain bargaining power as buyers seek to lower geopolitical sourcing risk.
Actions for Retailers and Dealers
- Audit supply contracts: insist on traceability data and third‑party refinery certifications for any Russian‑sourced metal.
- Rebalance inventory: increase exposure to recycled and non‑Russian sources; consider larger bar formats for bullion holdings where premiums are lower.
- Price proactively: build compliance and logistics costs into retail markups rather than absorbing them at the point of sale.
- Hedge where appropriate: bullion dealers and investors should review spot hedges and physical premiums in short‑duration windows.
In aggregate, Moscow’s 100‑gram rule will not reshape global gold fundamentals overnight. But it tightens the regulatory lens on physical flows and elevates provenance risk — a durable theme for 2025 that nudges the market toward certificated, recycled supply and stricter KYC practices. For US operators, the prudent response is not panic but preparation: secure validated sources, document chain‑of‑custody and price for the new administrative heft that political risk now imposes on physical gold.
Image Referance: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/12/08/russia-plans-limits-on-cash-and-gold-exports-in-push-to-curb-shadow-economy-a91372