India’s polished diamond exports rose 38% year‑on‑year to $920 million in November 2025, a near‑term rebound that reflects both market stabilisation and the after‑effects of last year’s extended Diwali closures in Surat.
- Price: $920 million (November 2025, GJEPC)
- Carat weight: Aggregate carat output not disclosed
- Origin: Surat, India (primary polishing hub)
- Date: November 2025 (GJEPC figures released Dec 16, 2025)
Market context
The 38% increase in USD terms versus November 2024 appears in part a statistical rebound: November 2024 was unusually quiet after major units in Surat extended Diwali closures from two weeks to a full month. On a month‑to‑month basis, exports fell about 10% from October’s $1.026 billion, and the broader trend across April–November remains subdued — polished exports totalled $8.2 billion versus nearly $9.0 billion a year earlier.
Still, the data point matters. The wider gem and jewellery complex is registering healthier movement: November sector exports rose almost 20% year‑on‑year, with plain gold jewellery up nearly 15% and studded gold jewellery up 6.5% for the April–November period. GJEPC chairman Kirit Bhansali told PTI that demand is picking up in Hong Kong, China and the Middle East even as the US remains soft, and that rising job‑work flows are lifting gold‑studded jewellery volumes.
Why this matters in 2025
For 2025 the story is layered. On one level, the rebound signals improving trade flows into key Asian and Gulf markets and a gradual restoration of order‑book normalcy after pandemic and festival distortions. On another, it underscores structural shifts influencing pricing and sourcing: buyers are increasingly factoring provenance, lower carbon footprints and tighter traceability into procurement decisions, while lab‑grown stones continue to reframe inventory mixes in certain segments.
Physical attributes are relevant to demand and margin: natural polished diamonds with strong colour grades and a vitreous luster command a different channel strategy and pricing cadence than lower‑graded parcels or lab‑grown inventory. For cutters and exporters in Surat, the emphasis is on quality control and the substantial heft of finished assortments sent to Hong Kong and the Gulf.
Impact for US retailers and investors
For US retailers the near‑term implications are pragmatic. A single monthly rebound does not reverse the eight‑month decline in aggregate exports, so buying teams should treat the November uplift as a soft signal rather than a definitive market turn. Tactical actions to consider:
- Inventory calibration: favour flexible assortments that can be segmented by finish and traceability to match demand in different channels.
- Negotiation leverage: use the softer April–November volume backdrop to secure better terms on larger parcels and job‑work contracts.
- Customer messaging: highlight verified origin and low‑emission supply chains where premium is justified; separate lab‑grown assortments clearly to avoid cannibalising natural‑diamond sales.
- Risk monitoring: watch freight, currency and regional demand (Hong Kong, China, Middle East) as they will drive order cycles through Q1 2026.
In short, November’s $920 million figure is a meaningful data point for trade flows and buyer sentiment, but it sits against a softer mid‑year performance. Retailers and investors who combine disciplined purchasing with clear provenance narratives will be best placed to extract margin and market share as 2025 transitions into 2026.
Image Referance: https://www.idexonline.com/FullArticle?Id=50979