Mastercard’s SpendingPulse reports a 3.9% rise in U.S. holiday retail spending, driven by stronger apparel and dining sales and a 7.4% surge in ecommerce—a holiday bump that carries clear consequences for inventory, promotions and omnichannel investment heading into 2026.
- Price: US holiday retail spending +3.9% (Nov. 1–Dec. 21, 2025)
- Carat Weight: Apparel +7.8%; Jewelry +1.6%; Restaurants +5.2%
- Origin: Mastercard SpendingPulse (preliminary; excludes automotive)
- Date: Data period Nov. 1–Dec. 21, 2025; release Jan. 2, 2026
Festive lift, measured and tactile
Mastercard’s macroeconomic unit found shoppers blended digital and physical channels with growing sophistication. Bricks-and-mortar receipts rose 2.9% while ecommerce climbed 7.4%, producing a net gain that was concentrated in tactile categories: cold-weather apparel (a textured-knit and structured-silhouette cycle) jumped 7.8%, restaurants recorded a 5.2% uptick and jewelry edged up 1.6%, often concentrated in carefully timed, diamond-led purchases that still carry a vitreous luster in consumer demand.
The report frames this growth as value-driven rather than volume-driven: consumers pursued promotions and convenience, testing deals early and mixing channels to secure perceived value without sacrificing the substantial heft of a considered purchase.
Context: 2025 trends that carried through the holidays
These results align with three persistent 2025 currents. First, sustainability and circular commerce continued to reframe buying decisions—retailers that promoted repair, resale or traceable sourcing captured attention from higher-income cohorts. Second, the market for lab-grown gemstones and calibrated inventory affected price sensitivity in fine jewellery, nudging some spend away from mined goods while preserving purchase frequency around lower ticket, polished-finish pieces. Third, sculptural aesthetics in apparel—sturdier fabrics and defined cuts—drove gift purchases that read as both wearable and directional, supporting the category’s above-market growth.
Mastercard’s preliminary window also showed unusually high participation in Black Friday and Cyber Monday, indicating that promotional cadence remains central to holiday performance; however, Deloitte and other consultancies reported consumers were more value-seeking overall, a dynamic that tempered planned expenditures in travel and other discretionary areas.
Impact for U.S. retailers and investors
For retailers the takeaway is operational: inventory mix, margin management and omnichannel execution now determine which merchants convert the holiday tailwind into sustainable growth. Apparel teams should balance structured, higher-margin pieces with fast-moving staples; jewelers must calibrate assortments between polished, lower-ticket lab-grown items and higher-margin mined pieces that still carry emotional resonance. Dining and experience-led operators should lean into capacity management and localized promotions to capture repeat visits.
From an investment perspective, the data argues for selective exposure. Companies with a clear omnichannel infrastructure, disciplined promotional playbooks and transparent sustainability credentials are better positioned to monetize modest demand upticks. Conversely, firms overlevered to non-essential travel and undifferentiated inventory face margin pressure if consumers maintain a value-first posture in 2026.
The subtle message: the holiday season delivered measured growth rather than a broad-based surge. For U.S. stakeholders, the path to stronger full-year performance will be found in precise inventory heft, smarter promotional timing and clearer sustainability signals that meet shoppers where they are—digitally fluent, price-aware and tactilely discriminating.
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