Gold’s unprecedented ascent in 2025, which saw the precious metal deliver returns exceeding 60%, has positioned it as a dominant asset class. This performance, marked by more than 50 all-time highs, now forces a critical question for jewelers and investors alike: Can this momentum be sustained through 2026, or is a significant market correction imminent?
- 2025 Return: >60% by end of November
- Record Highs: 50+ instances
- Primary Drivers: Geopolitical instability, economic uncertainty
- 2026 Outlook: Contested
The Context: A Search for Stability
The 2025 rally was not an isolated event but a direct response to pervasive market volatility. As other investment vehicles showed signs of weakness, capital flowed into gold, reinforcing its historical standing as a safe-haven asset. This search for stability has been the primary engine behind its valuation surge, creating a high-stakes environment for the coming year. The market is now closely watching macroeconomic indicators for signals of either continued growth or an impending pullback.
The Impact: Cost Pressures for US Retailers
For the US jewelry market, the implications are immediate and structural. The substantial increase in the base cost of gold directly impacts the cost of goods for manufacturers and retailers. This pressure on margins will likely compel brands to re-evaluate their 2026 pricing strategies, particularly for 14k and 18k gold collections. Retailers must now balance material cost absorption against consumer price sensitivity in an uncertain economic climate. The sustained high price of gold may also accelerate interest in alternative metals and lab-grown diamond settings as brands seek to manage entry-level price points.
Image Referance: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4850629-gold-outlook-2026-push-ahead-or-pull-back