NRF forecast: Jewelry will be the top gift by dollars spent this Valentine’s Day, the National Retail Federation told the trade, signalling a material seasonal revenue opportunity for US jewelers as shoppers plan to spend more on fine and fashion jewelry over the February 14 buying window.

  • Who: National Retail Federation (NRF)
  • What: Jewelry forecast as No. 1 gift by dollars spent
  • When: Valentine’s Day (February 14), seasonal selling window
  • Market: United States — gift segment

Context: how this aligns with 2025–26 retail trends

The NRF projection sits alongside ongoing shifts in consumer priorities that matter to jewelers: shoppers are allocating discretionary dollars to meaningful gifts rather than mass promotions, increasing the premium on product curation and presentation. For merchants this means the season favours both accessible‑luxury price tiers and higher‑ticket pieces that convey provenance and quality.

Operationally, the result is predictable: stronger demand for well‑finished items that read as durable and refined on inspection — think satin‑finished gold bands, micro‑pavé pendants with open‑backed settings for brighter colour, and pieces with substantial heft and clean joinery rather than thin, trend‑only designs. Retailers who pair those SKUs with clear provenance or simple traceability claims will meet current consumer expectations without overstating sustainability credentials.

Impact: what US retailers and wholesalers should do

With jewelry slated to lead Valentine’s spending, merchants should treat the window as a concentrated margin and traffic opportunity. Practical actions include tightening assortments to prioritize sell‑through probability, staging price‑tiered displays (entry, accessible‑luxury, investment), and allocating staff for guided selling that emphasizes tactile attributes — vitreous luster, weight, secure knife‑edge shanks and setting integrity — rather than headline discounting.

Inventory managers should review replenishment cadence and reserve promotional allowances for value‑adding services: complimentary resizing, refined gift packaging and simple certification that reinforces trust at point of sale. Online merchants should ensure high‑resolution imagery and short video clips that show substantial heft and clasp quality; add concise notes on metal purity and any relevant origin information to reduce returns.

For wholesalers and designers, the forecast is a cue to prioritise reliable lead times and flexible MOQs so retailers can react to last‑minute demand without pushing broad markdowns. For independents, a focused assortment of a few well‑executed SKUs can outperform a larger, unfocused inventory when shoppers are prize‑oriented in their gifting decisions.

NRF’s call that jewelry will be the top gift by dollars spent is a clear, near‑term signal: the Valentine’s window will reward merchants who translate consumer intent into confident merchandising, exacting craftsmanship and friction‑free service.

Image Referance: https://nationaljeweler.com/articles/14683-shoppers-to-spend-big-on-jewelry-this-valentine-s-day-says-nrf